江苏省旅游业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

根据2001～2014年江苏省13个市的面板数据,利用向量自回归模型对江苏省旅游业发展与经济增长关系进行实证研究。结果显示:经济增长冲击对国内旅游业与入境旅游业影响整体表现为先正后负;国内旅游业增长冲击对经济发展影响表现为先负后正,对入境旅游业发展的影响因地域差异的存在而表现不同;入境旅游业增长冲击对经济增长与国内旅游业的发展影响表现为正。在江苏省三大地区也呈现不同区域特征,这与经济发展阶段和旅游业发展水平相适应。整体上来说,国内旅游业发展、入境旅游业发展和经济发展水平之间没有形成协调发展,需要在发展旅游业过程中,立足于地区经济发展水平,提升城市基础设施建设水平,建立完善的旅游业市场机制。

Based on the panel data of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2014, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Jiangsu by using the vector auto-regressive model (VAR). The main results are as follows: Firstly, taken as a whole, economic growth first has a positive and then a negative impact on domestic tourism and inbound tourism;Secondly, domestic tourism growth first has a negative and then a positive impact on economic development, while its impact on inbound tourism development varies with the existence of regional differences;In addition, inbound tourism growth generally has a positive impact on economic growth and domestic tourism development. The three cities mentioned above have different regional characteristics, which are in line with their periods of economic development and levels of tourism development. On the whole, the coordinated development between domestic tourism development, inbound tourism development and the level of economic development has not yet been achieved. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the level of urban infrastructure construction and establish a perfect tourism market mechanism based on the level of regional economic development in the process of developing tourism.