国家经济发展水平与债务安排研究

A Study on a Country’s Debt Arrangement and Its Development Stage

债务与经济增长之间关系的研究众多,但是较少研究债务演进逻辑的本质。债务到底是一种人为的结果,还是随着各经济的发展具有相似趋势?本文梳理了主要国家的宏观债务杠杆率及结构与经济增长阶段之间的关系,发现宏观债务比率、结构与经济体所处发展阶段紧密相联系。表现为在经济体发展初期,宏观债务比率,尤其政府债务比重往往上升;而当原有的经济增长模式动力衰减时,往往对应着过高的宏观负债率,这时往往需要转变经济增长模式。通过成功的经济转型,经济体可以实现经济增长与杠杆率下降的并行不悖。对于中国来说,应重视宏观债务问题,通过合理调控宏观杠杆比率与结构,使之与经济增长相匹配。同时更重要的是,应通过增强改革力度,转变经济增长模式,从要素驱动型向资本驱动型的发展模式转变。

There are numerous studies on the correlation between debt and growth,but less trying to discuss about the evolution of a country's debt arrangement.Is debt an intended result of people,or naturally formed with similar patterns as economies develop?This article discovers a close correlation between macro-debt-ratio/structure and development stages of a country,by analyzing the correlations among debt arrangement and many institutional variances in major developed and developing countries.To be specific,in the early stage of an economy's urbanization,industrialization,the size and ratio of its macro-debt,especially government-related debt ratio will rise;After its original growth dynamics were exhausted,as economy slows down,macro debt ratio always goes up.At the juncture,reform will be needed.Successful shift of growth pattern will help an economy to re-achieve better growth while maintain a reasonable debt ratio/structure.China,should closely attend to the debt-related issues,maintain a rational debt arrangement suitable to its economic growth.More importantly,China needs to,by continuous reform,shift its growth pattern,from elements-driven to capital-driven.