基于模糊综合法的光伏发电项目风险评价方法及其应用研究

Risk Evaluation Method of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project and Its Application Research Based on Fuzzy Synthesis

结合我国光伏发电项目的发展特点和基本属性,采用风险鉴定、风险元层次分析、风险表征3个步骤,充分考虑了光伏发电项目从筹备到实施到运营的全过程,对光伏发电项目涉及的风险单元进行识别鉴定,构建基于技术性、自然、环境、政策、市场、生命周期、经营管理、并网风险等8个风险评估指标层次体系,采用ANP-TOPSIS组合的方法,建立光伏发电项目的评估模型。通过对实例进行应用,表明该方法的实用、有效性,以期为光伏发电项目的方案制定及产业建设发展提供有益参考。

Combining with the development characteristics and basic attributes of photovoltaic power generation projects in China,this paper adopts three aspects of risk identification,risk element hierarchy analysis and risk characterization,and fully considers the whole process of photovoltaic power generation projects from preparation to implementation and operation,and identifies the risk units involved in photovoltaic power generation projects by constructing a risk evaluation index hierarchy system for 8 risks involving technology,nature,environment,policy,market,life cycle,management and grid-connection.An evaluation model of photovoltaic power generation is established by using ANP-TOPSIS method.The application of the example shows the practicability and validity of the model,which provides a reference for the formulation of photovoltaic projects and industrial development.