基于人类活动与气候变化的长江流域水资源压力评价

Assessing Water Stress Based on Human Activities and Climate Change in the Yangtze River Basin

为研究人类社会经济活动及气候变化对水资源压力的影响,以长江流域的19个省级行政区为研究对象,基于1998-2016年各省水资源总量和供水量资料,运用水资源压力指数计算人类活动和气候变化影响下的区域水资源压力,采用Mann-Kendall检验法对水资源压力变化进行趋势分析。结果表明:长江流域在1998-2016年间总用水量增加了16%,而水资源总量在此期间减少了38%,相对于1998年,2016年长江流域近40%地区的水资源压力加重;流域内约32%地区的水资源压力受气候变化的显著影响,重庆和安徽受人类活动的显著影响。

To study the impact of human socio-economic activities and climate change on water stress, this paper takes 19 provincial-level administrative regions in the Yangtze River Basin as the object, and adopts the data of the total water resources and water supply during 1998-2016. Subsequently Water Stress Index is used to calculate water stress under human activities and climate change, and time series analysis is conducted by Mann-Kendall test. Results show that the total water consumption has increased by 16%, while the total water resources has decreased by 38% during 1998-2016 in the Yangtze River Basin, nearly 40% of area where water stress got worse in 2016 than 1998. About 32% of area in the basin is significantly affected by climate change, while Chongqing and Anhui are significantly affected by human activities.