自适应MCM的波动性指标收敛趋势分析

Analysis of Convergence Trend of Adaptive MCM Volatility Index

分析了自适应蒙特卡洛法(Mote Carlo method,MCM)评定测量不确定度时的规律,将其应用于实践领域。首先介绍了MCM基本原理和自适应MCM评定的具体流程、步骤及程序实现;然后根据自适应MCM需进行稳定性判定等特性,提出了自适应MCM波动性指标的概念;最后通过具有代表性的线性模型(铂电阻气温传感器测量误差值的关系模型)和非线性模型(电阻-温度关系模型)的仿真试验,得出自适应MCM波动性指标收敛趋势的一般性规律。最终为自适应MCM在评定测量不确定度时提供了一定的技术参考。

The rule of adaptive Monte Carlo method(MCM) for measurement uncertainty evaluation is analyzed and apply it to practise areas. Firstly, the basic principles of MCM, the detailed process, steps and program implementation on the evaluation of adaptive MCM are introduced. Secondly, combined with the characteristics that the stability of adaptive MCM needs to be analyzed, the concept of adaptive MCM volatility index is proposed. Finally, the general law of convergence trend of adaptive MCM volatility index is concluded by means of simulation experiments, which use representative linear model (relational model of measuring error value by using platinum resistance air temperature sensor) and non-linear model (resistance-temperature relationship model). Ultimately, a technical reference for the measurement uncertainty evaluation by adaptive MCM is provided.