山西产业结构调整对经济增长影响的实证分析

An empirical study on impact of industrial restructuring on economic growth of Shanxi province

为了定量研究山西省产业结构调整对经济增长的影响,将产业结构指标细化为产业结构优化率和产业结构升级率。通过构建向量自回归模型对产业结构优化、产业结构升级与山西经济增长3个指标进行实证分析。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,产业结构升级和优化与山西经济增长之间存在着单向的格兰杰因果关系。同时产业结构升级对山西经济增长促进作用十分显著,产业结构升级变动1%,会使经济增长率增加0. 1985%;而产业结构优化对促进山西经济的影响则十分有限,产业结构优化变动1%,会使经济增长率增加0. 0904%。最终提出了山西省政府应该采取多种手段促进产业结构升级的建议。

In order to make a quantitative study on the impact of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Shanxi province, the industrial structure indicators are refined into industrial structure optimization rate and industrial structure upgrading rate. Through the construction of vector autoregressive model, an empirical analysis is carried out on three indicators including industrial structure optimization, industrial structure upgrading and Shanxi economic growth. The Granger causality test results show that there is a one-way Granger causality between the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure and Shanxi economic growth. At the same time, the upgrading of industrial structure plays a very significant role in promoting Shanxi ’s economic growth. When the upgrading of industrial structure increases by 1%, the economic growth rate will increase by 0.1985%. However, the impact of industrial structure optimization is very limited. The increase of optimization by 1% will boost the economic growth only by 0.0904%. Finally, it is suggested that the government should take effective measures to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.