表外业务对商业银行盈利和风险的影响——基于2010-2017年上市银行面板数据实证分析

商业银行表外业务不仅可以增加营收,而且进行对冲交易也能降低银行风险。本文以2010-2017年中国16家上市银行数据为样本,运用实证分析方法,研究了表外业务对银行的风险、盈利能力、杠杆和流动性的影响。实证分析表明,表外业务可以显著地提升银行的股本回报率和股票收益,与外汇风险、利率风险以及非系统风险成不显著负相关,但也提高了银行自身的系统性风险;表外业务活动对商业银行的业务流动性与杠杆率所起到的作用较小。因此,要进一步完善健全国内金融市场环境,加快银行体制和机构的改革,使商业银行合理科学地发展自身表外业务,把风险控制在合理的区间,以增强中国商业银行的市场竞争力。

The off-balance sheet business of commercial banks can not only increase revenue, but also reduce bank risk through hedging transactions. Based on the data of 16 listed banks in China from 2010 to 2017, the paper uses empirical analysis methods to study the impact of off-balance-sheet business on bank risk, profitability, leverage and liquidity. Empirical analysis shows that off-balance sheet business can significantly improve the bank's return on equity and stock returns, which is insignificantly negatively correlated with foreign exchange risk, interest rate risk and non-system risk, but also improves the bank's own systemic risk;and off-balance sheet activities play a minor role on the liquidity and leverage of commercial banks. Therefore, commercial banks should rationally and scientifically develop and expand their off-balance-sheet business, and control risks in a reasonable range to enhance the market competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.