云盖山煤田区域预测与验证指标的选择和敏感性考察

Selection and sensitivity investigation of regional prediction and validation index of Yungaishan Coal Field

随着煤田开采深度的逐步增加,煤层中原始瓦斯含量和地应力逐渐增大,煤层突出危险性、突出频度和突出强度进而逐渐加大,原来的非突出区域将升级为突出区域。为防止煤层突出危险性突然升级,矿井在非突出区域也应进行突出预测,但由于对突出预测指标选取不够科学,指标测值并不能真实反映煤体的突出危险性,容易造成预测指标的错报、误报,给矿井安全生产埋下隐患。因此,矿井在突出危险性升级之前就确定突出预测敏感指标,不仅可以提高预测预报的可靠性,而且对突出升级后的防突技术管理工作有重要指导作用。

With the gradual increase of mining depth,the original gas content and ground stress in the coal seam gradually increase,and the coal seam outburst danger,protruding frequency and protruding strength gradually increase,and the original non-protruding area will be upgraded to a prominent area.In order to prevent the sudden increase of the coal seam outburst danger,the mine should also made a prominent prediction in the non-protrusion area.However,because the selection of the prominent prediction indicators was not scientific enough,the index measurement did not truly reflect the prominent danger of the coal body,which was likely to cause the wrong prediction index.Reporting and false positives have buried hidden dangers in mine safety production.Therefore,the mine determines the predictive and sensitive indicators before the dangerous upgrade,which not only improves the reliability of the forecast,but also plays an important role in guiding the management of the outstanding anti-burst technology.