我国基本养老保险系统可持续问题研究

Research on the Sustainability of China’s Basic Endowment Insurance System

随着我国人口老龄化的加剧和政府财力增长的减缓,基本养老保险系统的可持续得到越来越多的关注。养老保险系统可持续并不仅仅涉及养老保险基金收支失衡的问题,更由于其处于人口发展、经济运行、制度变革的大背景中。本研究讨论了影响基本养老保险系统可持续宏观层面的四个维度:人口老龄化加速、老年抚养比上升与延迟退休,养老保险其他支柱对基本养老保险的分流功能,收支缺口、个人账户空账与国有资本划转,养老保险基金的保值增值,并就维系基本养老保险系统可持续提出“开源节流”等对策建议。未来只有在人口、经济、社会全方位协调之下做到结构改革与参数调整并重,以长期经济增长实现更多可分享成果,才能真正确保基本养老保险系统的可持续发展。

With the aggravation of aging population and the slowdown of fiscal growth in China, the sustainability of the basic endowment insurance system has attracted more and more attention. Sustainable endowment insurance system is not only related to the imbalance of public revenue and expenditure of endowment insurance fund, but also integrated into the background of population development, economic performance and institution reform. This paper discusses four macro level dimensions that affect the sustainability of the basic endowment insurance system: accelerated population aging, increased dependency ratio and delayed retirement;the diversion function of other pillars of the endowment insurance to the basic endowment insurance;gap of income and expenditure, empty of personal account and transfer of state-owned capital;preservation and appreciation of the endowment insurance fund, also put forward suggestions such as increasing revenue and reducing expenditure on sustaining the basic endowment insurance system. In the future, the sustainable development of the endowment insurance system can only be realized by giving equal attention to structural reform and parameter adjustment under the coordination of population, economy and society.