考虑维修时间的总质保需求预测模型

Total Warranty Demand Forecasting Considering the Repair Time

激烈的市场竞争迫使制造商们逐渐向以顾客需求为中心的公司转变。在近20年内,作为影响顾客满意度的主要因素,产品的质保服务管理的相关研究开始成为学术界的焦点。良好的质保服务会给企业节省较多的运营成本,故对于刚投入市场的新产品而言,准确地预测质保需求对制造商合理分配资金等具有重要意义。以往对质保需求的预测模型都局限于分析长期意义上一个产品的总质保成本,忽略了产品的维修时间和动态销售过程对准确预测产品的总质保需求及成本的影响。为此,以销售期内的产品所产生的维修需求为主要的研究对象,深入探讨维修时间对预测质保需求的影响。模型中,利用非齐次泊松过程模拟产品的动态销售过程,并利用复合随机过程中的交错更新理论来刻画维修时间对总质保需求的影响。最后的参数分析,为企业更好地管理质保服务提供了重要的现实依据。

The manufacturers are forced to transit their operation models into a customer-centric mode by the fierce market competition. Thus, over the last 20 years, as the main factor that affects the customer satisfaction, the research of product warranty has become a focus issue for the academia. A good warranty service will save the company more operating costs. Therefore, for the new products being launched to the market, it is of great significance to accurately forecast the warranty demands for manufacturers to allocate funds properly. In the previous research, the forecasting models for warranty claims are limited to analyzing the total warranty cost of a product in the long-term sense, but ignoring the impact of product repair time and dynamic sales process on the product's total warranty demands and costs. To this end, we are focused on the repair demand and the impact of the repair time on the warranty demand forecasting. In the model, the non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate the dynamic sales process of the product, and the staggered updating theory in the composite stochastic process is used to characterize the effect of the repair time on the overall warranty demand. Finally, the parameter analysis provides an important reference for enterprises to better manage warranty services.