铁路快捷货运列车开行方案优选方法

Preferred methods of railway express freight train operation plan

铁路快捷货运列车开行方案优选是一类决策问题,传统决策方法难以准确考虑决策者的偏好和风险倾向,为此将前景理论应用于列车开行方案优选中。在建立铁路快捷货运列车开行方案决策指标的基础上,首先考虑决策者偏好和风险倾向构建价值函数和权重函数;其次,计算各指标属性的前景值;最后,以各指标属性前景值为参考,结合VIKOR方法对备选开行方案进行综合决策。算例及参数分析结果表明,应用该方法对铁路快捷货运列车开行方案进行决策是科学有效的。

The selection of train schemes for railway express freight is one kind of decision-makings.In view of the fact that the preference and the risk trend of decision-makers cannot be accurately considered in traditional decision-making methods.Therefore,the prospect theory is applied to the optimization of the train schemes.On the basis of establishing the decision-making index of railway express freight train schemes,the prospect value functions and the weight functions for each decision index are constructed by combining with the subjective preference and the risk trend of the decision-maker.Prospect values of each index are calculated and treated as property values,which contains uncertainties and decision-maker’s subjective preferences of indices.Finally,the VIKOR method is utilized for the comprehensive decision-making of benefit value based schemes.A case study and paramrter analysis show that the proposed method is applicable and effective for the selection of railway express freight train plans.