历届奥运会我国耐力性项目奖牌分布特征及发展趋势

The distribution characteristics and development tendency on the medal of China’s endurance items in the past Olympic Games

从奥运会我国耐力性项目奖牌的性别分布、参与人数特征、身体机能特征、动作结构特征与各分项特征入手,运用文献资料、灰色关联分析、GM(1,1)模型预测等方法,研究我国耐力性项目奖牌的分布特征和发展趋势。结果显示:耐力性项目奖牌总体呈现女强男弱,但差距逐渐缩小;多元动作结构变异组合项目奖牌少并呈现下降趋势;双人、多人项目奖牌少且呈现下降趋势;我国运动员在中距离与长距离项目的夺牌能力没有明显差异,长距离耐力项目发展趋势上升;影响奥运会我国耐力性项目奖牌数的分项由大到小依次为:中距离游泳>帆船(帆板)、赛艇、长距离竞走、长距离游泳、长距离跑、中距离皮划艇;其中只有长距离竞走一项奖牌呈现显著上升趋势。

By using the methods of document,grey correlation analysis,GM(1,1)model prediction and so on,this paper starts with endurance item medals of its gender distribution,athlete character,somatic function and movement structure feature and so on,and analyzes the distribution characteristics and development tendency.The result shows that the female won more endurance item medals than male,but the gap has been narrowing gradually;there are few of medals and decline trend including variation combination item of multiple movement structure and pair item,there are no obvious distinction on the number of medals between middle and long distance,the development trend of long distance items appears upward;the sequence in the medal number of China’s endurance items from the majority to the minority is mid-distance swimming,sailboat,rowing,longdistance race walking,long-distance swimming,long-distance running,mid-distance canoe and kayak,only medals of long-distance race walking present a rising tendency in Olympic Games.