中国乘用车市场需求及兼并重组福利效应模拟

Simulation of Demand and Effects of Merger and Reorganization in China’s Passenger Car Market

为探究汽车产业兼并重组的市场影响和社会福利效应,本文将数值模拟方法应用于经济分析,建立Logit模型,利用中国乘用车市场2008～2017年数据,进行市场需求估计、价格弹性计算和边际成本估计,以此为基础,对五大主要乘用车企业兼并重组效应进行数值模拟,并将模拟并购结果同实际并购进行对比分析。数值模拟结果表明,产品的边际成本与价格正相关,与市场份额负相关;兼并重组企业的价格涨幅高于非兼并重组企业,重组前市场份额高低将会影响重组后价格涨幅;兼并重组后企业利润水平会上升,但消费者福利将下降。文章据此对中国汽车产业兼并重组从供求、边际成本及社会福利等不同层面提出政策建议,力求为新一轮兼并重组政策的制定和实施提供有益参考。此外,模拟过程体现了Logit模型的稳定性和可靠性。

In order to explore the market influence and social welfare effects of the merger and reorganization of the automobile industry,this paper applies the numerical simulation method to economic analysis,establishes the Logit model, and uses the 2008-2017data of the Chinese passenger vehicle market to estimate the market demand,calculate the price elasticity and estimate the marginal cost.Based on this,the numerical simulation of the merger and reorganization effects of the five major passenger vehicle companies is carried out,and the simulation merger and acquisition results are compared with the actual mergers and acquisitions.The numerical simulation results show that the marginal cost of the product is positively correlated with the price and negatively correlated with the market share;the price increase of the restructured enterprise is higher than that of the non-restructuring enterprise,and the market share before the reorganization will affect the price increase after the reorganization;after the merger and reorganization,the corporate profit level will rise,but consumer welfare will decline.Based on the results,this paper proposes policy suggestions for the merger and reorganization of China’s auto industry from different levels such as supply and demand,marginal cost and social welfare,and strives to provide useful reference for the formulation and implementation of a new round of merger and reorganization policies.In addition,the simulation process reflects the stability and reliability of the Logit model.