养老地产PPP项目收益的系统动力学仿真模型

System Dynamic Simulation Model of PPP Project Benefit for Elderly Real Estate

随着我国老龄化进程不断加快,现有的养老服务机构如何满足越来越多的养老需求已成为当下亟待解决的难题。考虑到PPP模式的优势和适用范围,提出采用PPP模式建设养老地产项目。在分析养老地产项目收益影响因素的基础上,构建了养老地产PPP项目运作的系统动力学仿真模型,并提供了相应参数和变量间方程关系的通用设定方式。私营企业可将实际项目数据代入模型以观察项目收益的走势来决定合作与否,政府可通过模型测量各因素的敏感性来决定最终的特许合同细节,进而为项目公司后期运营策略的调整提供有效的决策支持。

With the acceleration of the aging process in China,how the existing pension service institutions to meet the growing demand for pension has become an urgent problem to be solved.Considering the advantages and applicability of PPP model,this paper proposes to adopt PPP model to build old-age real estate projects.On the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of pension real estate project income,the system dynamics simulation model of pension real estate PPP project operation is constructed,and the corresponding variables and equation setting methods are provided.Private enterprises can incorporate actual project data into the model to observe the trend of project revenue to determine cooperation or not.The government can determine the details of the final franchise contract by measuring the sensitivity of each factor in the model,and then provide effective decision support for the adjustment of the later operation strategy of the project company.