能源发展水平评价与预测

Evaluation and Prediction of Energy Development Trend

针对能源现状、能源发展水平、未来能源发展趋势等问题,以美国加州(CA),亚利桑那州(AZ),新墨西哥州(NM)和得克萨斯州(TX)为例,采用描述统计、模糊综合评价、时间序列预测、指数平滑预测、灰色预测等方法,运用MATLAB、LINGO软件分别建立了模糊综合评价模型、等级识别模型、单项预测模型、组合预测模型等进行分析,发现四个州能源发展水平皆呈上升趋势,TX能源发展状况最佳; 2009年之后,各州能源发展水平都呈稳步上升趋势,到2025年,得克萨斯州(TX)和美国加州(CA)略高于新墨西哥州(NM)和亚利桑那州(AZ); 2025年到2050年,能源发展水平持续上升,美国加州(CA)能源发展水平最高,得克萨斯州(TX)次高,亚利桑那州(AZ)较低,新墨西哥州(NM)最低。

In terms of energy status, energy development level and development trends, etc., this paper takes California (CA), Arizona (AZ), New Mexico (NM) and Texas (TX) as examples and establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, a grade recognition model, a single prediction model, a combined prediction model by adopting descriptive statistics, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, time series prediction, exponential smoothing prediction, grey prediction with MATLAB and LINGO. It is found that the level of four state?’ energy development is rising. Texas (TX) energy development is the best, after 2009, every states energy development level has steadily increased, by 2025, Texas (TX) and California (CA) are slightly higher than New Mexico ( NM) and Arizona (AZ);from 2025 to 2050, energy development continues to rise, and California (CA) has the highest level of energy development, Texas (TX) is the second one;Arizona (AZ) is lower;New Mexico State (NM) is the lowest.