股市波动对我国居民消费的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

Impact of Stock Market Fluctuation on China's Household Consumption Based on SVAR Model

随着我国股市的快速发展,股票成为越来越多居民的理财方式,且在经济转型背景下,股市波动对居民消费的影响逐渐受到重视。通过构建SVAR模型实证检验发现:第一,现阶段我国股市存在财富效应,但影响比较微弱;第二,股票市场换手率是我国股市存在挤出效应的重要原因,其源于我国股市的高波动性;第三,新增投资者人数增加有利于增强我国股市的财富效应,但影响程度较小,可能原因在于当前我国居民股市参与度不高、股票资产配置比例较低。建议进一步加强股票市场监管,防止股市"大起大落";规范市场环境,引导投资者观念转变;以及加强对中小投资者保护,鼓励居民入市。

With the rapid development of China's stock market, the impact of stock market volatility on household consumption has gradually received more attention. This paper tries to make an empirical test of con-structing SVAR model;First, at present, Chinas stock market has wealth effect which is relatively weak. Sec-ond, because of high volatility, the stock market turnover rate is an important for the extrusion effect of China's stock market. Third, the increase in the number of new investors is conducive to enhance the wealth effect of Chinas stock market, but the impact is relatively small. The possible reason is that the current participation of Chinese residents in the stock market is not high, and the proportion of stock asset allocation is low. It is recom-mended to further strengthen the supervision of the stock market to prevent the stock market from “ up and down”, regulate the market environment and guide the change of investors'concept;and strengthen the protec-tion of small and medium - sized investors to in terests.