我国劳动力集聚红利:区际异质性与区间辨识

China's Labor Agglomeration Bonus:Regional Heterogeneity and Interval Identification

对中国劳动力集聚经济增长效应定量测算,研究发现:2000—2015年期间,中国劳动力集聚红利在经济增长中的贡献率达到14. 05%。其中,劳动力集聚度最适宜地区包括北京、天津等。随后进一步纳入地区异质性视角并发现,各地区的劳动力集聚对其经济的影响并非一致,适宜的集聚区间也不相同,其中地区经济实力是影响其劳动力集聚经济增长效应的关键因素,经济发达地区的劳动力集聚红利期更长,能够承受的劳动力集聚上限更高。目前,仅就经济效应来看,上海仍然具有继续吸纳劳动力的空间和能力。

The article quantitatively estimates the economic growth effect of labor agglomeration in China,and the results show that during the period from 2000 to 2015,the contribution rate of China's labor agglomeration bonus in economic growth has reached 14.05%.Among them,the most suitable areas for labor agglomeration include Beijing,and Tianjin etc.Then regional heterogeneity is put into the research,and the result shows that the impact of labor agglomeration on economic growth varies in different places,and the suitable agglomeration zones in each region are different.Among the variables,economic strength is a key factor influencing the impact of regional labor agglomeration on economic growth.Economically developed regions have longer periods of labor agglomeration bonus and a higher upper limit of labor agglomeration.At present,from the perspective of economic effect,Shanghai still has the space and capacity to absorb labor.