城市体系演变规律及其影响因素研究——基于云南省州市面板数据的实证分析

A Study on the Evolution Rules of Urban System and Its Determinants:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Prefectures and Cities in Yunnan Province

区域协调发展是区域经济研究的重要内容,优化城市体系是推进区域协调发展的重要途径。运用齐普夫模型考察云南省城市体系演变规律,研究发现,云南省城市体系在2008—2017年呈现聚集发展趋势、城市体系分布帕累托系数逐年下降,说明省域经济发展差异逐渐扩大,因此,在新时代推动云南省域协调发展显得尤为迫切。从理论上分析城市体系分布的影响因素,并利用云南省州市府驻地城市建成区户籍人口面板数据进行实证检验,数据表明,财政支出、外商投资、进出口额对城市体系聚集发展的促进作用具有显著效应,而交通运输条件的改善促进城市体系的协调发展。根据研究结论,提出发展中小城市、完善区域城市体系的对策建议。

Regional coordinated development is a key research field of regional economic researches,and the optimization of urban system is an important way to promote the coordinated de-velopment of regions.Zipf model is used to study the evolution rules of the urban system of Yun-nan and the results show that the urban system of Yunnan Province has the tendency of agglomera-tion development,and the Pareto coefficient of urban system allocation tends to decrease year by year.This indicates that the gap of provincial economic development has been increased,so it is especially urgent to promote the provincial coordinated development of Yunnan in the new era.The paper analyzes the determinants of urban system allocation theoretically,and makes an empirical test by constructing panel data of regional registered households in prefectures and cities of Yunnan.Statistics show that fiscal expenditure,FDI,and import and export volume have significanteffects on promoting the agglomeration development of the urban system.Meanwhile,the improvement of urban transportation can promote the coordinated development of the urban systems.Based on the conclusions,suggestions on developing small and medium-sized cities and improving regional urban system are proposed.