董事会报告可读性、制度环境与分析师预测——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

Readability of Board Report, Institutional Environment and Analyst Forecast——Based on Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

依据2007-2016年中国上市公司数据,考量上市公司董事会报告可读性、制度环境对证券分析师盈利预测表现的影响。结果发现:董事会报告可读性越好,分析师预测越准确,分析师预测的分歧度也越小;考虑宏观制度环境的影响,上市公司所处地区的制度环境越好,分析师盈利预测的准确度越高,分歧度越小,受到董事会报告可读性的影响越少。鉴此,应完善公司非财务信息披露和外部制度环境,从而提高分析师预测准确性,促进资源有效配置。

Based on the data from 2007 to 2016 of Listed Companies in China,this paper examines empirically the effect of readability of board report and institutional environment on the accuracy of analysts’prediction about profit.The results show that higher readability of board’s reports is associated with more accurate analyst forecast and less analysts’forecast dispersion.Considering the effect of macro institutional environment,we also find that the institutional environment is positively associated with analyst forecast dispersion and is negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion;furthermore,the analysts’prediction has less dependence on the readability of board report.Thus,it is necessary to improve non-financial information disclosure and external institutional environment to improve the accuracy of analysts’forecasts and promote the effective allocation of resources.