拉美政治生态的新变化与基本趋势分析

Changes and Trends in Latin American Politics

近年来,拉美国家民主与稳定的趋势进一步稳固.政治体制正常运行,政治生活有序展开.社会矛盾和冲突处于可控状态。但稳定中有隐患,不稳定或不确定因素依然存在;体制运转失灵的风险仍未消除.政治发展的不确定性增加,拉美国家的不团结不利于地区政治稳定。在新的国际和地区环境中.拉美政治生态和政治社会环境继续发生新变动。“左退右进”的效应持续发酵.持续近二十年的左翼“粉红色”潮流继续褪色.左翼执政党面临的难题增多,“21世纪社会主义”实践探索遭遇新挫折。但拉美左翼政治力量的影响仍不可小觑.一些仍继续执政的左翼政府不断调整政策和理念.执政方针趋于温和化与实用主义化。古巴“更新”开启新征程,将对拉美政治格局和政治发展产生不可忽视的影响。

In recent years,democracy and stability in Latin America have been gradually consolidated, as the political institutions continue to function normally, political life is carried out in an orderly manner, and social contradictions or conflicts remain under effective control. However, elements of uncertainty,instability or risk still remain due to the possibility of institutional failure, uncertainty in political development, and regional instability caused by disagreements among Latin American countries. In the new international and regional environment, a series of changes are taking place in Latin America’s political ecology and socio-political landscape. As a result of the accelerating "shift from left to right" in the political pendulum and the receding "pink tide" that lasted for nearly two decades, the left-wing ruling parties are facing more difficulties while the so-called Socialism of the 21 st Century has encountered new setbacks.However, the influence of the left-wing political forces in the region cannot be underestimated. Some left-wing governments that continue to govern are making adjustments in their policies and governing approaches, which tend to be more moderate and pragmatic. The process of "upgrading" in Cuba has entered a new phase and will have an important impact on Latin American politics.