中东格局新特征与秩序演变新方向

New Features of the Pattern in the Middle East and New Direction of the Evolving Order in the Region

近期中东地区一方面延续战乱频仍、局势动荡的主基调,叙利亚继续在内战漩涡中挣扎,巴以战火旷日持久已成常态,美俄针对地缘势力范围角逐依旧激烈,多个热点地区仍能看到沙特和伊朗反复争夺、酣战激斗的身影。另一方面中东局势又呈现出一些新特点:美土矛盾骤然升级、伊朗核协议停摆推高美伊对抗强度、走向平稳的伊拉克乱局潜存再度复发的风险。这些新老热点问题的叠加联动,促使地区政治秩序和利益格局反复重组,域内外各方势力的博弈角力,又将对大国关系定位、国际体系秩序演变和地区战略格局的前景走势产生重大而深远的影响。

Of late,the Middle East has been beset with protracted wars and chaos,as well as social unrest,with the raging civil war in Syria and the enduring fighting between Palestine and Israel becoming normal,while on the other hand,there have been some new features in the Middle East situation,as seen in the drastic upgrading of contradictions between Turkey and the U.S.,the intensifying confrontation between Iran and the U.S.resulted from the unilateral withdrawal of the Iranian nuclear deal by the U.S.,and the potential rising of chaos in Iraq in its process toward stability.The combination of these old and new issues,and their intensifying through interactions have promoted repeated realignment of regional political order and interest pattern,while the contest and game involving forces from both within and without will exert important and profound impacts on the orientation of major country relationship,the evolution of international system and order,as well as the prospect and development trend of the regional strategic pattern.