论能源革命与科技使命

On the Energy Revolution and the Mission of Science and Technology

能源是一个国家强盛的动力和安全的基石。世界能源发展正处在由煤炭、油气向新能源第三次转换的新阶段,形成石油33%、天然气24%、煤炭28%、新能源15%"四分天下"新格局。中国正处在以煤炭为主的能源时代,"富煤但油气不足"的资源禀赋造就煤炭59%、石油19%、天然气8%、新能源14%的"一大三小"结构,需开展能源结构转型革命,迈向煤炭40%、油气31%、新能源29%"三足鼎立"新局面。中国石油工业正在由常规油气向非常规油气发展,形成"常-非并举"格局,开展从单体圈闭"油气藏"到大面积"甜点区"的理论革命、从直井天然能量到水平缝网"人工油气藏"的技术革命、从人工作业到信息智能化低成本开发的管理革命、从能源政治到重塑能源新版图的战略革命。中国能源转型道路选择"减煤稳油增气、大力发展新能源"两大方向,面临煤炭清洁化利用、油气对外依存度攀升、新能源未来支柱产业不明朗"三大挑战",需布局煤炭、油气、新能源"三大战略领域",开展能源供给侧、能源消费侧、能源技术侧、能源体制侧"四大革命",把握现行国家政策、"一带一路"战略、新一轮油价回暖、天然气规模发展、新能源技术革命方向"五大机遇",完成中国能源转型的历史使命。社会文明发展和科学技术进步是驱动能源转型的两大动力,社会文明发展是内在动力,科学技术进步是根本动力,从传统化石能源向非化石新能源转型是能源发展的必然趋势和必然选择。

Energy is a country′s driving force towards power and the cornerstone of national security. The world′s energy development is currently entering the third stage of the transition from coal, oil, and gas to new energy sources. This stage is characterized by a new combination of energy supply worldwide: 33% from petroleum, 24% from natural gas, 28% from coal,and 15% from new energy sources. However, China still has a coal-based energy, as its "coal-rich and oil-and-gas-lacking"energy endowment has led to an energy supply structure of "one leader with three followers": 59% from coal, 19% from petroleum, 8% from natural gas, and 14% from new energy sources. It is therefore necessary to initiate a revolutionary process of transformation of the energy structure, in order to achieve a condition in which the energy supply is provided by a more balanced combination of coal(40%), oil and gas(31%), and new energy sources(29%). China′s petroleum industry is undergoing a transformation from conventional to unconventional oil and gas resources;thus, it currently can be defined as a "mixed conventional-unconventional" oil and gas industry. At the same time, the industry is undergoing a "theoretical revolution" from the exploitation of single-entrapment oil and gas reservoirs to that of "sweet spot areas" on a large scale, a technological revolution from the use vertical natural wells to that of fractured horizontal well networks of "man-made reservoirs", a management revolution from manual operations to intelligent and low-cost development, and a strategic revolution from energy politics to reshaping the energy balance. China has chosen the strategies of "reducing coal, stabilizing petroleum, and increasing gas"and "vigorously developing new energy sources" as the two paths towards energy transformation. At the same time, China is facing "three major challenges": the need to achieve a clean coal utilization, the rising dependence on imported oil and gas,and the uncertainty about the future pillar industries of the new energy. In order to overcome these challenges, China needs to establish the "three major strategic areas" of coal, oil and gas, and new energy sources, by carrying out "four major revolutions"concerning the energy supply, consumption, technical aspects, and overall system;exploiting the "five major opportunities"presented by the current national policy(the "One Belt One Road" strategy);pursuing a new round of oil price recovery and a large-scale development of natural gas;and working in the direction of a technological revolution in the new energy resources so as to complete the historical mission of China′s energy transformation. The development of social civilization and the progress of science and technology are two driving forces for energy transformation, with the former being the internal driving force and the latter the fundamental driving force. The transition from traditional fossil energy to non-fossil new energy sources is the inevitable trend and the inevitable choice of energy development.