高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析

Qualitative analysis on emergency decision-making behavior of senior officials in earthquake emergency drill

为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。

In order to study the decision-making behavior of senior officials in the response of unconventional emergencies,the qualitative analysis of decision-making samples was carried out through the earthquake emergency drill from the aspects of the impact of decision-making recommendations,the selection of decision-making objects and the priority ranking. By using the NVivo12 software,45 decision-making samples collected from an emergency decision-making drill of great earthquake with the participation of senior officials were analyzed. The coding standard was determined on the basis of structured processing,then the code of emergency decision-making was traversed through the samples,and the observed data were obtained and analyzed. It was preliminarily found that the decision-making behavior of senior officials in the drill had the following characteristics,namely the obvious influence by the decision-making recommendations,the autonomous decision-making in the aspects of disaster situation,public opinion and infrastructure,and the significant differences in the ranking of decisionmaking weights among different levels.