基于Leslie矩阵模型和队列要素预测——以“二孩”政策对我国人口结构的影响为例

Prediction of Queue Elements Based on Leslie Matrix Model——A Study on the Impact of “Two-child” Policy on China's Population Structure

为评价我国全面二孩政策的实施效果,本文选择具有代表性的东、中、西部十个省市为研究对象,以统计年鉴数据为基础,采用熵权法建立人口可持续发展指数。进一步地,我们分别应用Leslie矩阵和队列要素法建立人口模型,并构建"就业指数"和"青壮年压力指数",预测了未来我国人口结构和相应社会经济情况的变化。在此基础上,本文提出全面二孩政策配套实施手段的合理化建议,以期促进人口结构变动与社会进步的一致发展。

In order to evaluate the implementation effect of China’s comprehensive two-child policy,this paper chooses 10 representative provinces and cities in the east,central and western regions as the research object,based on the statistical yearbook data,establishes the population sustainable development index by using the entropy weight method. Furthermore,we use Leslie matrix and queue element method to build population model,and construct "employment index" and "young and middle-aged pressure index"to predict the changes of population structure and corresponding social and economic conditions in China in the future. On this basis,this paper puts forward reasonable suggestions on the means of implementing the comprehensive two-child policy in order to promote the coordinated development of population structure change and social progress.