投入产出网络中的关键产业

Key sectors in input-output network

随着经济协作日益密切,产业网络关联程度的加深,部门的生产变化会波及其上游和下游部门的生产,直接或间接地影响其他部门,进而对整体经济产生影响。从部门间投入产出网络的角度,衡量每个产业部门对于总产出波动的影响。通过直接消耗系数矩阵构建投入产出网络,研究部门冲击对总产出波动的影响。在构建的投入产出网络基础上,从对总产出波动影响大小的角度,刻画关键产业,其生产冲击对整个网络的产出波动影响最大。用我国2012年投入产出数据实证分析,发现批发、零售业和农产品业通过网络关联对总产出波动影响最大,可作为关键产业。

As economic cooperation becomes closer and industrial network becomes more connected, changes in sector production will affect the output of its upstream and downstream sectors, directly or indirectly affecting other sectors, and thereby affecting the overall economy. From the perspective of intersectoral input-output network, the influence of each sector on the aggregate volatility is measured. The input-output network is constructed by direct consumption coefficient matrix to study the role of sectoral shocks in the aggregate volatility. On the basis of the established input-output network, the key sectors are depicted from the perspective of the impact on the aggregate volatility, whose productivity shock has the greatest impact on the output volatility of the entire network. The empirical analysis of China's 2012 input and output data shows that the wholesale and retail, agricultural product sectors have the greatest impact on the aggregate volatility through network linkages, which can be regarded as key sectors.