“两型社会”试验的经济效应——基于合成控制法的估计

The Economic Effect of the Pilot Project of the “Two Types Society”:An Estimation Based on the Synthetic Control Method

2007年12月14日武汉城市圈与长株潭城市群被确定为"两型社会"建设综合配套改革试验区,被赋予先行先试的政策创新特权,率先开展"两型社会"建设的探索与实践。运用合成控制法,结合2004—2016年中国省级面板数据的实证研究表明,试点政策对湖北省的经济增长、节能、减排和技术创新均有显著的促进作用,该结论经过稳健性检验仍然成立。这说明环境规制可以释放环境红利和经济红利,创造节能减排和经济增长的双赢机会。

On December 14, 2007, Wuhan City Circle and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group were confirmed as the Comprehensive Coordinated Reform Pilot Zones of the “Two Types Society” construction, which were granted the policy innovation privilege of pioneering and piloting, so as to take the lead in carrying out the exploration and practice of the construction of the “Two Types Society”. By employing the synthetic control method, this paper conducts an empirical analysis based on the 2004-2016 Chinese provincial panel data. The findings show that the pilot policy has significantly promoted the four major indicators in Hubei Province, i.e., economic growth, energy conservation, emission reduction and technological innovation. And this conclusion still holds through the robustness test. This research confirms that environmental regulations can release environmental dividends and economic dividends, creating a win-win opportunity for energy conservation and economic growth.