技术进步的方向与经济高质量发展——基于全要素生产率和产业结构升级的视角

The Direction of Technological Progress and High-quality Economic Development:Based on the Perspective of TFP and Industrial Structure Upgrading

技术进步的方向是影响宏观经济增长和产业结构变迁的重要因素,但鲜有文献就其对经济高质量发展的影响进行探究。本文根据标准化供给面系统方法,估算出1990—2016年间中国28个省级行政区的技术进步方向指数,并运用这一指数进行了基于偏向性技术进步的量化分析。计量回归结果表明,排除相关控制变量影响,偏向资本的技术进步对经济增长率提升和全要素生产率的进步具有正向作用,并且有利于产业结构从传统部门向现代部门、从低生产率部门向高生产率部门的转移,因而能够在一定程度上促进经济高质量发展;另一方面,资本偏向型技术进步会导致不同产业部门之间投入产出效率差距加大,不利于各产业协调发展,并且会导致劳动报酬比重下降,因此需要审慎考虑其在未来经济发展中的作用。

The direction of technological progress is an important factor affecting macroeconomic growth and industrial structure change,but few study has been taken on the impact of biased technological progress on high-quality economic development.Based on the standardized supply side system method,this paper estimated the technology progress direction index of 28 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 1990 to 2016,and conducted a quantitative analysis based on biased technology progress with this index.The results of econometric regression show that,excluding the influence of relevant control variables,technological progress in favor of capital has a positive effect on the improvement of economic growth rate and total factor productivity,and is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure,so it can promote high-quality economic development to a certain extent.On the other hand,capital-biased technological progress is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure and the coordinated development of various industries,and will lead to the decline in the proportion of labor remuneration,which requires careful consideration of its role in future economic development.