一带一路视角下人民币对卢布的隐性货币锚效应实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Hidden Currency Anchor Effect of RMB on Ruble from Perspective of the “Belt and Road”

在"一带一路"和人民币国际化的历史诉求下,研究人民币对俄罗斯卢布的隐性货币锚效应不仅有利于推进人民币周边化乃至国际化,而且有助于推动"一带一路"向纵深发展.通过建立货币锚回归模型、引入虚拟变量并构造关系模型,对人民币目前是否已成为卢布的隐性货币锚和中俄"一带一路"深度合作影响人民币成为卢布货币锚的显著性进行实证检验,结果表明:1)人民币事实上已经成为卢布最重要的隐性货币参照锚;2)"一带一路"倡议在中俄深耕显著加快了人民币升格为卢布隐性货币锚的进程.现阶段应持续深化中俄之间的货币合作,强化人民币离岸市场建设,优化人民币借助SDR搭建"一带一路"货币区的进程.

Under the background of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the historical demands of RMB internationalization, studying the hidden currency anchor effect of RMB on Russian ruble is not only conducive to promoting the surrounding usage and even internationalization of RMB, but also helps to promote the "Belt and Road" initiative in depth. Through currency anchor regression model, dummy variable and relation model, an empirical test is conducted on whether RMB has become the hidden currency anchor of the ruble. It shows that:(1)RMB has in fact become the most important hidden currency anchor of the ruble.(2)The "Belt and Road" initiative has significantly accelerated the process of upgrading RMB into a hidden currency anchor of the ruble. At this stage, we should continue to deepen the monetary cooperation between China and Russia, strengthen the construction of the RMB offshore market and optimize the process of RMB's building the "Belt and Road" currency zone with SDR.