城市居民家庭贫困脆弱性的测度、因素识别与消减策略

Measurement, Factor Identification and Reduction Strategy of the Vulnerability to Poverty of Urban Households

全球化、高科技、高风险的社会特征给城市居民家庭带来巨大风险冲击,其贫困脆弱性问题值得关注。贫困脆弱性是指因风险冲击而使得家庭或个人未来生活水平降到贫困线以下的概率或可能性,在反贫困领域有着广泛的应用。在贫困脆弱性的概念与分析框架基础上通过CFPS数据对城市居民家庭的贫困脆弱性进行测度,识别其中的影响因素,这是进行前瞻性政策设计的前提与基础。研究发现,城市居民家庭的贫困脆弱性在户主年龄、就业状态等维度呈现一定的特征分布。总体而言,有将近一半的城市居民家庭属于贫困脆弱性家庭需要政策的干预。文化程度、生活支出、家庭资产、地区、重要事件、婚姻状况、就业状态、社会保障、社会关系等是影响贫困脆弱性的重要因素,尤其要重点关注收入变动性贫困脆弱性。可以通过兜底保障、风险缓解、能力提升及行动改善等手段来消减城市居民家庭的贫困脆弱性。

With the tremendous impact of social characteristics of globalization, high-tech and high-risk on urban households, the vulnerability to poverty of these families deserves attention. Vulnerability to poverty refers to the probability or possibility that a family or individual’s future living standard will fall below the poverty line due to the risk or impact, which has been widely used in the field of anti-poverty. Based on the concept and analysis framework of vulnerability to poverty, this paper measures the vulnerability to poverty of urban households through CFPS data, and identifies the influencing factors, which is the premise and basis of forward-looking policy design. The study finds that the vulnerability to poverty of urban households presents a certain characteristic distribution in such dimensions as the age of the head of household and the employment status. Nearly half of the urban households belong to families of the vulnerability to poverty and need policy intervention. Education, living expenditure, family assets, regions, important events, marital status, employment status, social security and social relations are important factors affecting vulnerability to poverty. We should focus on the vulnerability to poverty of income fluctuation. The vulnerability to poverty can be reduced by means of undercover security, risk mitigation, capacity improvement and action improvement.