气象指数保险是合适的农业风险管理工具吗?

Is Weather Index Insurance a Suitable Agricultural Risk Management Tool?

气象指数保险在某种程度上可以克服传统农业保险的缺陷,但是,针对当前农业生产经营情况,中国是否适合实行气象指数保险,这是一个需要探讨的问题。本文运用2004~2016年全国农户面板数据,分别测算了小麦、玉米、稻谷和大豆等4种农作物的产量风险和县域农作物受灾系统性风险。研究发现:在中国,由于农作物气象灾害风险不满足“小概率、大损失”的基本可保条件以及针对受灾系统性风险的可保条件,气象指数保险的风险管理作用将十分有限,不宜作为农业风险管理工具。但是,借鉴气象指数保险的理赔方式,实行气象指数储蓄保险可以发挥农业保险的收入支持功能。

Weather index insurance can to a certain extent overcome the drawbacks of conventional agricultural insurance,so in recent years it becomes popular in China.So far very few studies can be found on the applicability of weather index insurance to China.This article discusses this question within the context of the current agricultural production and operation situation.Based on the panel data of farmers in China from 2004 to 2016,the study calculates the yield risk of wheat,maize,rice and soybean and the systematic risk of disaster to county crops.The result shows that weather index insurance can play a very limited role in risk management,since the risk of crop meteorological disasters neither satisfies the basic insurable conditions of“small probability and large loss”,nor the insurable conditions for the systematic risk of disasters.So weather index insurance cannot work as an appropriate agricultural risk management tool.However,China can use the compensation method of weather index insurance to reduce the“leakage”of financial funds.Finally,it puts forward that the implementation of“Weather Index Savings Insurance”can give full play to support the income of households.