中国农产品中价格稳定的“锚”是什么?

What is the "Anchor" of China’s Agricultural Price Stabilization?

本文基于协整检验和误差修正模型分析了中国玉米、稻谷、小麦、大豆、棉花、白糖、猪肉7种主要农产品之间的长期价格均衡与价格传导路径。考虑到单次回归结果对样本期的敏感性,本文在总样本期内通过滚动窗口抽选了多个子样本期重复进行协整检验并回归误差修正模型。结果显示,从长期来看,玉米、棉花和白糖处于价格传导链的基础地位,小麦和大豆处于中间环节,稻谷和猪肉处于末端环节。其中,玉米价格与其它农产品价格之间通过协整检验的次数最多,且玉米价格在协整系统中被识别为弱外生变量的频率也最高。考虑到玉米种植区域广泛、总产量高、用途丰富、产业链深度与广度都较高,且玉米价格与原油价格的联系紧密,本文认为玉米是中国农产品价格稳定中的“锚”产品。政府应当加强对玉米市场的重视,在对农产品制定价格调控政策时要充分利用玉米作为“锚”产品的市场地位。

This article uses a co-integration test and an error correction model to analyze the long-term price equilibrium and price transmission among China’s seven main agricultural products,namely maize,rice,wheat,soybean,cotton,sugar and pork.Taking into account the sensitivity of the single regression results to the sample period,this study uses a rolling window technique to select a wide range of sub-samples in the full sample period,repeats the co-integration test and uses the error correction model in each sub-sample for test.The results show that,in the long run,maize,cotton and sugar are in the basic position of price transmission chain,wheat and soybean being in the intermediate link,and rice and pork being in the terminal link.Among them,the number of times passing co-integration tests between the maize price and other product prices is the largest,and maize price is most frequently identified as weak exogenous in the co-integration system.The study identifies maize as the“anchor”product in the price stability of China’s agricultural products,since the planting area of maize is wide,the production of maize is high,the depth and breadth of the maize industrial chain is much greater than that of other agricultural products,and maize price is closely linked with crude oil price.The government should attach more importance to the maize market,and make full use of the market position of maize as“anchor”product when formulating price intervention policies for agricultural products.