基于VAR模型的农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系实证研究——以江苏省为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Rural Financial Development and Rural Economic Growth Based on VAR Model——Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example

农村金融不仅是农村经济发展的引擎,也是实施乡村振兴战略的重要支撑。在总结国内外有关学者研究成果的基础上,基于农村金融发展的相关理论,通过建立VAR模型,选取江苏省1994年到2015年的农村金融数据作为样本数据,运用Eviews6.0分析工具,对江苏省农村金融发展和经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果显示:从协整检验结果来看,江苏省农村金融发展与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;从格兰杰因果检验结果来看,江苏省农村经济增长是农村金融发展的格兰杰原因,而金融发展不是农村经济增长的格兰杰原因,江苏省农村金融发展长期处于"需求追随"的地位。鉴于此,应加强农村金融供给侧改革,提高服务水平;创新农村金融机构支农模式,增强支农力度;开发适合农村经济发展需要的金融产品,提高支农精准度。

Rural finance is not only the engine of rural economic development, but also an important support for the implementation of the strategy of rural revitalization. Summarizing the research results of relevant scholars at home and abroad, we established the VAR model based on the relevant theories of rural financial development. The rural financial data of Jiangsu province from 1994 to 2015 were selected as the sample data, and the Eviews 6.0 analysis tool was used to conduct an empirical analysis on the relationship between rural financial development and economic growth in Jiangsu province. The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between rural financial development and economic growth in Jiangsu province. From the granger causality test results, it can be seen that the granger cause of rural financial development is the rural economic growth in Jiangsu province, but the granger cause of financial development is not the rural economic growth. The rural financial development in Jiangsu province has been in the status of "demand following" for a long time. In view of this, we should strengthen the reform of rural financial supply side, improve the service level and innovate the rural financial institutions to support agriculture mode. We should also strengthen the efforts to support agriculture;develop suitable financial products for rural economic development and improve the accuracy of agricultural support.