基于灰色预测模型的安徽省建筑业碳排放量预测

Carbon Emission Prediction of Construction Industry in Anhui Province Based on the Grey Prediction Model

建筑业在安徽省经济发展中起着重要作用,在发展低碳经济的时代,二氧化碳的排放量也不容忽视。以2008—2016年安徽省建筑业直接碳排放量作为样本基础,采用灰色预测模型并结合MATLAB软件,对安徽省建筑业2017—2021年5年的直接碳排放量进行预测。结果显示:安徽省建筑业碳排放量呈上升趋势,2021年预计达到1063.82万t。

The construction industry plays an important role in the economic development of Anhui,while the problem of carbon emission cannot be neglected in the era of low carbon economy.The carbon emission prediction of Anhui can raise the local government concerns and promote the development of low carbon economy.Based on the direct carbon emissions of construction industry in Anhui from 2008 to 2016,a grey prediction model and MATLAB software are used to predict the direct carbon emissions of construction industry in the five years from 2017 to 2021.The results show that the carbon emission of construction industry is on the steady rise,and the carbon emission of construction industry is expected to reach 10.638 2 million t in 2021.