文在寅政府对朝政策与朝鲜半岛局势演变

The Policy of Moon Jae-in Administration and the Current Situation on the Korean Peninsula

文在寅执政后,继承了进步政府对朝鲜和解理念,试图通过调整其北方政策化解韩朝关系危机,防止朝鲜半岛局势失控。为此,韩国政府通过"柏林构想"释放对朝善意,制定出改善南北关系的蓝图,以完善对朝政策体系。在实现半岛无核化过程中,韩国对朝政策及南北关系始终受美国制约。因此,韩美朝关系是影响半岛局势走向的关键。展望未来,朝鲜半岛局势在多重因素影响下将出现三种不同的演变路径:一是朝鲜弃核促使半岛局势缓和;二是美国施压导致半岛局势紧张;三是韩美施压致使半岛秩序重构。

The new ROK President Moon Jae-in has inherited the progressive government's policy of reconciliation and cooperation with DPRK since he took office. The Moon Jae-in administration attempts to resolve the crisis of Korean Peninsula by adjusting its policy towards DPRK, releasing goodwill to the DPRK through the “Berlin Initiative”and working out a new blueprint for inter-Korean relations. However, in the process of denuclearization, The policy of ROK towards the DPRK and inter-Korean relations have always under the restriction from the United States. Therefore, the ROK-U.S.-DPRK relations are the key to the future scenarios of the Korean Peninsula. In the future, there will be three different prospects relating to the the Korean Peninsula under the impact of multiple factors. The first one is that DPRK's denuclearization will ease the confrontation on the Korean Peninsula;the second is that U.S. pressure will result in growing tension on the Korean Peninsula;and the third is that pressure from both ROK and U.S. will lead to the reconstruction of the order on the Korean Peninsula.