中国高科技产品出口及驱动因素研究

Analysis on Export of High-tech Products of China and its Driving Factor

本文从出口金额、种类和地理结构视角对中国高科技产品出口进行了描述性统计分析,并得出:中国高科技产品出口金额呈上升态势;出口种类存在一定程度的收敛性和稳定性;出口目的市场的集中度较高,当然该结论会因不同的细分类高科技产品而存在一定程度的异质性。此外,利用贸易引力模型对中国高科技产品出口的驱动因素进行剖析并发现:目的市场GDP对中国高科技产品出口存在稳健的正向刺激效应;中国与贸易伙伴之间的地理距离、中国与贸易伙伴是否签署自由贸易协定、中国与贸易伙伴是否同属世贸成员这三个因素会因不同的高科技产品种类存在一定程度的异质性,并且稳健性程度有所减弱;其他因素的异质性更强、稳健性更弱。最后,针对结论提出一些相应启示。

From the angle of amount, variety and geographic structure, this paper make a descriptive statistical analysis on export of high-tech products of China and find that the amount for export of high-tech products of China is increasing, the varieties for it having a certain degree of convergence and stability, the concentration ratio for it being too high and heterogeneity existing in different subclassified high-tech products. Then we make an analysis on driving factor of export of high-tech products of China and find that GDP of destination have stable positive stimulation on China’s export of high-tech products, the influence of distance, free trade agreement and the status of WTO member on China’s export of high-tech products having heterogeneity in different subclassified high-tech products and this influence being not stable, the heterogeneity and stability of the other driving factors being strongest and weakest respectively. At last some enlightenments are given according to the conclusions.