儿童时期多维贫困的长期影响——基于CHARLS生命历程数据的实证分析

Long-term Effects of Childhood Multidimensional Poverty:Empirical Analysis of the CHARLS Dataset in China

运用CHARLS生命历程数据(2014)构建度量每个个体儿童时期多维贫困的指标体系,并以此为基础量化分析儿童期多维贫困对后续人力资本积累、健康水平和劳动收入状况等方面的长期影响,结果显示,儿童期多维贫困对成年后健康状况、教育水平和就业收入都有显著的负向影响,而且随着贫困维度的提高,其对成年后的负面影响不断加深。此外,异质性分析结果显示,儿童期贫困对出生时为农业户口的人群的负面影响更大。必须基于生命周期视角思考反贫困政策问题,减贫政策应该更加注重儿童时期的脱贫,这对个体在全生命周期下的减贫会起到重要作用。

The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the long-term effects of childhood multidimensional poverty on subsequent human capital accumulation, adult health and labor income. The dataset used in this study is China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a longitudinal household survey conducted by National School of Development at Peking University in 2014. Our empirical results suggest that childhood multidimensional poverty will significantly and negatively affect the adult health, education and labor income. Moreover, we also find the evidence that as the total number of dimensions deprived in childhood increases, its negative effects on adult health, education and income would become larger. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative effect of childhood poverty on adult outcomes is even larger for rural hukou holders. Our findings have important implications for policy making which confirm the necessity of making anti-poverty policy under the perspective of the life cycle. Anti-poverty policies should pay more attention to early childhood intervention which will play an important role in poverty reduction throughout the life.