中美贸易摩擦对全球制造业格局的影响研究

Impact of China-US Trade Friction on Global Manufacturing Structure

研究目标:围绕中美贸易摩擦对全球制造业相关行业贸易和生产的异质性影响进行机理分析、经验估计和效应模拟。研究方法:基于Anderson和Wincoop(2003)的结构引力模型在行业层面上阐述中美贸易摩擦对制造业格局的影响机理;使用2002~2016年的经验数据估计各行业的贸易替代弹性;将行业贸易替代弹性等经验估计值引入反事实模拟,使用Anderson等(2015)的GEPPML方法模拟中美贸易摩擦经济效应的行业异质性。研究发现:中美贸易摩擦敏感行业中贸易政策(RTAs和进口关税)的出口效应和产出效应有非常明显的异质性。总体来看,美国发动贸易摩擦对其实现“重塑经济独立”的目标没有实质性意义,一定程度上牵制了中国向“制造业强国”迈进的步伐;推进RCEP的生效实施是具有重要现实意义的中国对策;中美贸易摩擦和RCEP的实施可能会为日本、印度、澳大利亚等RCEP成员国相关制造行业的发展提供历史性机遇。研究创新:绝大多数贸易政策效应研究直接选取截面数据进行反事实模拟,没有考虑经验事实中不同行业贸易替代弹性的差异;现实中贸易摩擦有明确的行业指向性,聚焦敏感行业进行行业层面的深入研究有更好的现实意义。研究价值:为后续中美贸易摩擦效应评估和对策研究提供一个理论和实证范式的借鉴。

Research Objectives:This paper is to explore influence mechanism and heterogeneous effects of China-US trade friction on global manufacturing structure.Research Methods:Import tariff is introduced into theoretical derivation of Structural Gravity Model at the industry level.Empirical data from 2002~2016 and GEPPML method are used in the estimates and effects simulation.Research Findings:Due to the different trade substitution elasticities,impacts of tariff changes on exports of different industries are quite different.Impacts of tariff changes on the welfare of producers and consumers in different industries are quite different,which lead to heterogeneous welfare effects in different industries.Research Innovations:Basing on 2018 tariffs lists and sensitive manufacturing industries in the history of China-US trade friction,this paper selects sensitive manufacturing industries,estimates their different trade substitution elasticities and introduces the estimates into simulation to analyze the heterogeneous effect of China-US trade frictions.Research Value:This paper may provide possible theoretical and empirical references for subsequent effect evaluation and countermeasure research.