国际油价波动与中国制造业企业的成长表现

Oil Price Fluctuations and the Performance of China’s Manufacturing Firms

油价波动已成为经济发展的不稳定因子,但很少有文献考察油价波动影响企业成长表现的微观传导机制。利用1999—2006年国际油价波动和中国制造业企业数据,本文采用面板数据回归和面板向量自回归方法考察了油价波动对企业成长表现的静态影响与动态冲击。研究发现:油价波动对中国整体制造业企业的成长表现(包括生产效率、销售额和从业人员)都有负面影响,而且生产效率在油价剧烈波动期的平均实际下降幅度高达28%至44%。油价波动对公有制和私有制企业的生产效率分别有短期的正面和负面影响,表明油价波动对不同所有制企业的生产效率有“筛选效应”。本文还发现,私有制企业比公有制企业更能有效利用金融资源去抵御油价波动冲击。当企业内部或外部融资状况改善后,私有制企业因财务状况好转而提高的生产效率平均比公有制企业高出约23%。

Oil price fluctuations have become an unstable factor of economic development,but few exis-ting studies have examined the micro transmission mechanism of oil price fluctuations into the performance of firms.Using the data of international oil price fluctuations and data on Chinese manufacturing firms from 1999 to 2006,this paper investigates the static and dynamic impacts of oil price fluctuations on the performance of firms with the help of panel data regression and panel vector autoregression(PVAR).The study finds that oil price fluctuations have a negative impacts on the performance of China’s manufacturing firms in many dimensions,including productivity,sales volume and employees,and the average decline in productivity during periods of high oil price fluctuations is up to 28%~44%.Oil price fluctuations have short-term positive and negative effects on the productivity of state-owned and private firms,respectively.It indicates that oil price fluctuations have a "sorting effect" on the productivity of firms with different ownerships.This paper also finds that private firms are more effective than state-owned firms in utilizing financial resources to cope with oil price fluctuations.When firms improve financing conditions internally or externally,the productivity of private firms induced by the improvement of financial conditions is about 23% higher than that of state-owned firms on ave-rage.