高速列车传动系可靠性的外部影响因素评估

Assessment for External Influence Factors of High-Speed Train Transmission Reliability

为研究除自身构件外的外部影响因素对高速列车传动系可靠性的影响,以现役 CHR3 型高速列车为研究对象,基于 FID (fuzzy influence diagram)理论,对影响高速列车传动系统可靠性的外部因素进行评估分析.首先通过业内权威专家问卷,建立外部影响因素的 FID 频率模糊集、状态模糊集和模糊关系,并构建影响传动系统可靠性的 FID 关系层、数值层及函数层;其次依据模糊集合理论对人员、基础设施、环境、维修、管理等外部影响因素的频率矩阵进行计算;最后得出各项外部影响因素的状态降低及提高的累积概率.研究结果表明:人员状况和管理水平的状态降低的累积概率分别为 39.9%、42.5%,两项因素在保持当前状态基础上累积提高 30%的概率分别为 77.6%和 90.9%,并且二者的累计概率分布与该型传动系的可靠性概率分布相近,说明人员和管理状况为首要影响因素,其他因素次之.

For the study of external influence factors besides its components impact on the high-speed train transmission reliability,the external influence factors of the CHR3 high-speed train transmission reliability are analyzed based on fuzzy influence diagram (FID). First,Frequency fuzzy sets,state fuzzy sets and fuzzy relation were built by the expert questionnaires. The relational layer, number layer and function layer of FID were constructed for the transmission reliability. Furthermore,the frequency matrix of extrinsic impact factors such as personnel,infrastructure,environment,maintenance and management is calculated based on the fuzzy set theory. Finally,get the reduced state cumulative probability and the cumulative increase probability of external influence factors. The reduced state cumulative probability of the personnel situation and the management level is 39.9% and 42.5%, and the cumulative increase probability is 77.6% and 90.9%, and the cumulative probability distribution is similar to the reliability of transmission probability distribution..In summary, the staff and management are the key extrinsic impact factors for the transmission reliability,and other factors are secondary.