农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例

Effect of Agricultural Scale and Structure on Poverty Alleviation for Farmers in Fujian——A Case Study Analyzed by Household Income Threshold

【目的】分析农业产业发挥减贫效应的门槛条件,为精准扶贫和扶贫资金的有效利用提供政策参考。【方法】在农业产业发展与贫困理论分析的基础上,基于福建省县域贫困和社会经济统计数据,构建门槛回归模型,以残差平方和最小化为条件确定门槛值,在考虑基础设施、金融情况、教育水平、医疗条件下,主要从规模和结构两个方面检验农村居民人均可支配收入对农业产业扶贫的门槛效应。【结果】当农村居民人均可支配收入低于门槛值时,农业产业规模越大,农业产业的弱质性越强于益贫性,越不利于减贫,但是改善农业产业结构有利于减缓贫困。当农村居民人均可支配收入高于门槛值时,农业产业的规模扩张对农村减贫发挥出正向效应。随着农业产业规模的扩大,农业产业的益贫性强于弱质性,减贫效应开始显现。若某个地区已经脱离贫困,就会进入资本积累的良性循环,农业产业的适度规模就会产生规模经济,大幅提高农民的经济收益。【结论】福建地区农村贫困存在贫困门槛效应。对于尚未跳出贫困陷阱的地区,建议优化农业产业结构,完善农村农业生产基础设施建设,实施兜底式扶贫。对于跳出贫困陷阱的地区,建议加快农地流转,促进农业适度规模发展,推广资源资产收益扶贫机制。

【Objective】A threshold of farmer household income established using the economic data and model to yardstick the effect of agricultural scale and structure on poverty alleviation of the agriculture communities in the province for formulating effective managing and funding policies to improve the social condition was studied.【Method】 A regression model based on the theories of agricultural development and poverty along with the social and economic data collected from the counties in rural Fujian was applied to constructed the poverty threshold for the farming households. The per capita disposable income threshold determined by minimizing the sum of squares of residuals was weighed against the local agricultural scale and structure with the considerations of infrastructure,finance,education and medical services of the community.【Result】 When the disposable income of a farm household was below the threshold level,the bigger operation with low business competitiveness,the less effective was the alleviation effort. But structural modifications would improve it. In contrast,when the disposable income had surpassed the threshold,expanded operational scope could usher in a positive effect for alleviating poverty. And,an expanded operation with a competitive edge on the market would further enhance poverty mitigation. Once out of poverty,a community would enter a virtuous cycle of expansions from the capital accumulation resulting in further improvement on the economic status of the resident farmers.【Conclusion】There appeared a threshold effect relating to the scale and structure of an agriculture operation on poverty alleviation in Fujian rural areas. For those regions stricken by poverty,optimizing agricultural structure and improving infrastructure to facilitate production would be appropriate for effective poverty alleviation. On the other hand,in the areas that have already raised beyond the threshold level,exploring new land uses,scaling up operation and maximizing utility of resources could be the beneficial measures to implement.