中国对外直接投资是否存在“生产率悖论”?——证伪“中国威胁论”的一个科学依据

Is There a Productivity Paradox in China's Outward Foreign Direct Invest?——A Scientific Basis for Falsification of “China Threat Theory”

对外投资是中国对外开放的重要模式。根据1999-2007年中国工业企业数据库与境外投资企业(机构)名录的匹配数据,通过PSM-DID计量方法探究中国对外投资企业是否存在"生产率悖论"。研究结果表明,中国企业生产率越高,其开展对外投资活动的概率越高,且分别呈现"小规模—中规模—大规模"和"西部—中部—东部"逐步递减特征,说明中国对外开放为世界经济发展输送了一批生产率更高的优质企业。利用2008-2016年中国省级层面统计数据,采用最小二乘估计法、广义矩估计法和面板数据固定效应回归法估算省(区)全要素生产率,运用静态面板回归方法,证明不存在"生产率悖论"。研究为证伪"中国威胁论"提供了一个科学依据。

Outward foreign direct investment is an important mode of China’s opening up. Considering the matching data of Chinese industrial enterprise database and the list of foreign investment enterprises( Institutions) in 1999-2007,this paper explores the existence of "productivity paradox"in China’s foreign direct investment enterprises through the PSM-DID measurement method. The results show that the higher the productivity of Chinese enterprises,the higher the probability of outward direct investment activities,and present the diminishing characteristics of "small scale-medium scale-large scale"and "western region-central region-eastern region",which shows that China’s opening to the outside world has delivered a number of highquality enterprises with higher productivity for the world economic development. This paper uses the statistical data at the provincial level from the National Bureau of Statistics in 2008-2016 to estimate the total factor productivity by OLS,GMM and FE,and further proves that there is not "productivity paradox"through the static panel regression methods. This provides a scientific basis for falsifying the "China Threat Theory".