关于南昌市社区“五全六能”楼/院式养老模式影响因素的决策树分析

Decision Tree Analysis of Influencing Factors for “Five Conceptions and Six Features” Building/Yard Endowment Pattern in Nanchang Communities

目的结合南昌市养老现况和社区可提供的资源,对社区“五全六能”楼/院式养老模式的影响因素进行决策树分析,旨在提出养老模式的最佳推行方案,为养老者更好地改善养老条件。方法对4个社区中养老相关的管理者260人进行问卷调查和座谈,并对结果进行决策树分析。结果被调查对象的应答率为99.23%。建立的决策树模型最终有8个变量进入,获得7层、21个节点,其中购物情况是模式适应性最重要的影响因素。树状图的其他节点包括了邻里帮扶情况、社区通讯网络、附近公共交通设施、社区娱乐与运动场所、应急救助反应能力、健康管理电子系统、物业维修条件;重要性排序结果显示,排在前3位的依次为购物情况、邻里帮扶、社区通讯网络。结论针对性地对购物情况、邻里帮扶情况、社区通讯网络进行改进将更好地推动“五全六能”楼/院式养老模式的运行。

Objective To conduct a decision tree analysis on influencing factors for “Five Conceptions and Six Features” building/yard endowment pattern in Nanchang communities by combining the current situation of endowment in Nanchang and the resources available to communities,and to put forward the optimal implementation plan of endowment pattern for improving pension conditions. Methods A total of 260 managers from 4 communities were investigated by questionnaire and interview.The results were analyzed by decision tree. Results The response rate was 99.23%.Finally,8 variables entered the decision tree model,and 7 layers and 21 nodes were obtained.Shopping was the most important factor affecting the model adaptability.The other nodes of the tree chart included neighborhood support,community communication network,nearby public transport facilities,community entertainment and sports places,emergency response ability,electronic health management system and property maintenance conditions.The top three factors ranked in decreasing order were shopping situation,neighborhood support and community communication network. Conclusion The improvement targeting shopping situation,neighborhood support and community communication network can promote the implementation of “Five Conceptions and Six Features” building/yard endowment pattern.