碳排放、产业结构与福建经济增长动态研究——基于VAR模型和Granger检验

Research on carbon emission, industrial structure and economic growth of fujian——Based on VAR model and Granger test

基于1995-2017年间福建省CO2排放强度、产业结构和GDP指标数据,通过VAR模型、单位根检验、残差序列统计检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析和预测方差分解,对福建省碳排放、产业结构与经济增长的动态关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:福建省CO2排放强度对经济增长有影响,总的来说,CO2排放强度的提高促进了经济增长;产业结构的升级能在较短时期内降低CO2排放强度;CO2排放强度不仅对经济增长有影响,还对产业结构的变动有影响。基于以上结论,提出了促进福建省碳排放、产业结构与经济增长互动发展的政策建议。

Based on the CO2 emission intensity,industrial structure and GDP index data of Fujian province from 1995 to 2017,we studied the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions,industrial structure and economic growth in Fujian province by way of VAR model,unit root test,residual sequence statistical test,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and prediction variance decomposition.The results show that the CO2 emission intensity of Fujian province has an impact on economic growth.In general,the increase of CO2 emission intensity promotes economic growth;the upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the CO2 emission intensity in a short period of time;the CO2 emission intensity not only has an impact on economic growth,but also has an impact on the change of industrial structure.Based on the above conclusions,some policy recommendations are proposed to promote the interactive development of carbon emissions,industrial structure and economic growth in Fujian province.