杭州市入室盗窃犯罪空间集聚模式及时空相关性分析

On the Spatial Agglomeration Pattern and Spatio-temporal Correlation of Burglary Crime in Hangzhou

利用杭州八区2014年1月至2015年6月入室盗窃案件数据,基于空间集聚模式分析方法与时空相关性分析方法,对其空间聚集-离散的分布特征以及时空的相关性特征进行分析.研究结果表明:杭州八区入室盗窃空间上总体呈“西北—东南分散、西南—东北集聚”分布特征,不同时间段上呈夜晚比白天更集聚、2月份的分布方向相比其他月份更趋向萧山区中部街道、四季集聚程度相似的分布特征;杭州八区2014年1、2、9月入室盗窃案件呈现较强时空相关性,进一步通过分层聚类分析发现其热点位置主要位于西湖区、上城区与拱墅区交界乡镇(街道).

Based on the data of burglary cases in the eight districts of Hangzhou from January 2014 to June 2015,the spatial clustering-discrete distribution characteristics and the spatio-temporal correlation characteristics were analyzed by using the spatial clustering model analysis method and spatio-temporal correlation analysis method.The results showed that the distribution of burglary spots in the eight districts of Hangzhou was generally featured by“northwest-southeast dispersion,southwest-northeast agglomeration”.During different time periods,the burglary happened more agglomerative in the night than in the daytime,and the distribution direction of February was more inclined to the middle streets of Xiaoshan District than other months.However,there was no significant difference between four seasons.In addition,the burglary showed strong spatio-temporal correlation in January,Feburary and September 2014.Further analysis through hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that the hot spots were mainly located in Xihu,Shangcheng and Gongshu Districts.