塔里木河流域水资源变化趋势及用水效率分析

Analysis of water resources change trend and water use efficiency in Tarim River Basin

水资源的利用影响着流域社会经济的可持续发展、社会稳定与和谐,因此,本文采用水文频率分析法、DEA模型等,并基于1960-2016年实测水文资料,科学分析塔里木河流域水资源的变化规律和用水效率,结果表明:(1)近56年来,塔里木河上游三源流径流总体呈增加趋势,特别是1990年后,源流的径流呈显著增加趋势;而干流的上游径流量呈不显著减少趋势,中、下游的径流量呈显著减少趋势;(2)塔里木河上游三源流径流的增加是由于山区气温升高和降水增加的效应,而干流由于人类大规模的垦荒、引水导致来水呈减少的趋势;(3)塔里木河流域整体用水效率不高,2015、2016年水资源用综合效率的平均值分别为0.769、0.701,2005-2016年间流域平均全要素生产率(TFP)仅为0.980。

Because the problem of water resources utilization affects the sustainable development of social economy,social stability and harmony in the Tarim River Basin;Based on hydrological frequency analysis method,DEA model and other methods,and 56 years of measured hydrological data,this paper analyzed the variation trend and water use efficiency of the source of the Tarim River.The results showed that:(1) In the past 1960-2016 years,the runoff of the three sources in the upper reaches of the Tarim River was increasing,especially since 1990,the runoff of the source was increasing significantly,while the runoff of the upper reaches of the main stream was not decreasing significantly,and the runoff of the middle and lower reaches was decreasing significantly.(2) The increase of runoff from three sources in the upper reaches of Tarim River was due to the increase of temperature and precipitation in mountainous areas,while the runoff of main stream decreasing was due to large-scale reclamation and diversion of water by human beings;(3) The overall water use efficiency of the Tarim River Basin was not high,the average comprehensive water use efficiency in 2015 and 2016 was 0.769 and 0.701 respectively,while the average total factor productivity (TFP) in 2005-2016 was only 0.980.