基于历史数据的水利工程建设市场主体信用动态评价与预测模型

Dynamic evaluation and prediction model for credit entities of water conservancy construction market based on history data

针对水利工程建设市场主体信用评价周期不等、评价周期过长、评价方法不够科学等问题,参考现有水利工程建设市场主体信用评价指标,采取综合赋权法确定指标权重,以确保指标权重的合理性;利用模糊综合评价法得到某水利施工企业的综合信用评价值,并基于历史数据得到最终的信用动态评价值,最后,利用马尔科夫模型(Markov Model)计算信用动态预测值。研究结果表明,水利工程建设市场主体信用动态评价模型对水利施工企业的信用评价有效可行,利用马尔科夫模型得到的信用动态预测值可以为选择水利施工企业提供参考。

In view of the problems of different credit evaluation cycles, long evaluation cycles and unscientific evaluation methods of the entities of the water conservancy construction market, the weights of the credit evaluation indices referring to the existing credit evaluation indices of the entities of the water conservancy construction market are determined by means of the comprehensive empowerment approach so as to ensure their rationality. The comprehensive credit evaluation values of a water conservancy construction enterprise are obtained by using the proposed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the historical data, the final dynamic evaluation values of credit are obtained. Finally, the dynamic prediction values of credit level are given by the Markov model. The results show that the dynamic credit evaluation model for the entities of the water conservancy construction market is effective and feasible for the credit evaluation of the water conservancy construction enterprises, and the prediction values of credit obtained by the Markov model can provide reference for the selection of water conservancy construction enterprises.