中亚国家社会稳定影响因素探析——基于基础性因素和冲击性因素的综合分析

Affecting Factors on Social Stability in Central Asian Countries——Comprehensive Analysis of Basic Factors and Shock Factors

本文通过基础性因素和冲击性因素两个分析框架,归纳总结出影响中亚社会稳定的主要因素:核心领导人、公民共同意识、传统社会、经济稳定性、公民(青年)群体、贫困问题、治理能力、外部因素。其中核心领导人因素对社会稳定起着至关重要的作用,显示中亚国家社会治理理念主要是刚性治理观,社会稳定具有一定的脆弱性;中亚国家长期得以保持社会基本稳定,其原因主要是政治利益冲突的表现方式和激烈程度有所改变,核心领导人的稳定性以及传统社会发挥重要作用。未来几年中亚国家社会形势总体趋稳,但长期社会基本问题复合性特征突出,民生问题需高度重视。权力交接对中亚国家社会稳定构成最大考验。

Through the two analytical frameworks of basic factors and shocks factors,this paper summarizes the main factors affecting the stability of Central Asian society:core leaders,civil common sense,traditional society,economic stability,civil(youth)groups,poverty,governance capability and external factors.The impact of core leaders upon social stability is crucial,indicating that the concept of social administration in Central Asian countries is mainly a rigid concept of administration.In this regard,their social stability shows certain fragility.The reason why Central Asian countries maintain basic social stability in a long term is mainly due to the manifestation and intensity of political conflicts have changed,and the stability of core leaders and traditional society have played an important role.In the next few years,the social situation in Central Asian countries will continue to stabilize,but the compound feature of long-term social issues will become obvious.Moreover,people's livelihood issues will be an emphasis and the power transfer would probably pose the greatest threat to the social stability of Central Asian countries.