国际货币体系多元化下的中亚国家“去美元化”研究

On Central Asian Countries’ De-Dollarization under the Diversification Trend of International Monetary System

2008年全球金融危机以来,国际货币体系结构正经历深层次转变,“美元化”与“去美元化”博弈正酣。中亚国家作为全球美元化程度最高的地区之一,近年来积极推行“去美元化”战略,背后具有其特定的历史根源和政策逻辑。研究回顾了“美元化”和“去美元化”概念的提出、发展及相关研究成果,通过面板数据固定效应模型分析中亚国家“美元化”高企的主要驱动因素,在此基础上对中亚国家近年来“去美元化”成效加以分析和评估,进而总结出对该地区区域结算货币体系构建、人民币国际化等命题的一些启示。

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the international monetary system structure has undergone a deep-seated transformation, and the game between“dollarization”and“de-dollarization” has been faltering. As one of the regions with the highest level of dollarization in the world, Central Asian countries have actively implemented the“de- dollarizing”strategy in recent years, with its specific historical roots and policy logic behind. The paper reviews the concept of“dollarization”and “de-dollarization”with its initiation, development and related studies scrutinized. The main causes of the“dollarization”in Central Asian countries are analyzed through the panel data fixed-effects model, based on which the Central Asian countries’“de- dollarization”measures have been analyzed and evaluated. Then a set of inspirations related to the reconstruction of the settlement currency system in Central Asia and the Renminbi Internationalization have been proposed in the paper.