基于ANN＿CA模型的安徽省淮北市土地利用变化模拟

Simulation of land use change in Huaibei City,Anhui Province based on ANN＿CA model

以安徽省淮北市为研究区,选取2005年、2010年、2015年土地利用数据,基于GIS、GeoSOS for ArcGIS平台,探究2005-2015两个时段土地利用变化及转化方向,并使用ANN_CA模型对研究区2015年的土地利用空间布局进行模拟。结果表明:1)淮北市土地利用以耕地为主,占研究区61%。2005-2010,耕地转变为建设用地面积为29.68km^2;水域流出量为3.14km^2,转向建设用地;水域流入量为5.21km^2,来自耕地。其他土地利用类型转化不明显。2010-2015,耕地转变为建设用地面积为45.33km^2,草地向耕地和林地转移14.22km^2、10.47km^2。水域转为耕地和建设用地面积为10.76km^2、8.36km^2。2)运用ANN_CA模型进行模拟,模拟结果总体精度为78.46%,满足预期目标。

Taking Huaibei City of Anhui Province as the research area,land use data in 2005,2010 and 2015 are selected as the data sources.Based on GIS and GeoSOS for ArcGIS platform,land use changes and transformation directions in two periods from 2005 to 2015 are explored.ANN_CA model is used to simulate the spatial layout of land use in the research area in 2015.The result shows:a)The land use in Huaibei is dominated by cultivated land,accounting for more than 61%of the study area.From 2005 to 2010,the area of cultivated land converted to construction land was 29.68 km^2,the inflow of water was 5.21 km^2,and the outflow of water was 3.14 km^2.The transformation of other land use types is not obvious.From 2010 to 2015,the cultivated land was converted into construction land of 45.33 km^2,and the grassland was transferred to cultivated land and forest land of 14.22 km^2 and 10.47 km^2.The area of farmland and construction land converted into water area is 10.76 km^2 and 8.36 km^2.b)Using the ANN_CA model for simulation,the overall accuracy of the simulation results is 78.46%,which satisfies the conditions.