1978—2016年中国经济增长动力与可持续性实证研究——一个扩展的索洛模型

An Empirical Analysis of Motivation and Sustainability of China’s Growth in 1978—2016——An Expanded Solow Model

近年来,我国经济的增长由快速增长渐渐趋于平缓,中国经济进入中高速增长的新常态,新常态下要加快我国经济发展,需要深入分析我国经济可持续发展的动力机制。本文通过构建一个扩展的索洛模型对1978—2016年中国经济增长的动力要素进行实证分析,结果发现改革开放以来中国经济增长属于粗放型增长模式,并且固定资产投资、劳动力投入、资本体现式技术进步、制度变迁和工业化进程是推动中国经济增长的主要动力,但是目前这些传统动力要么存在问题,要么面临耗尽的风险。要克服传统经济增长模式存在的问题,需要寻找新的增长动力,进行整体规划。

In recent years,China’s economic growth has gradually tended to be flattened by rapid growth.The Chinese economy has entered a new normal of medium-to-high-speed growth.To accelerate China’s economic development under the new normal,it is necessary to analyze in depth the dynamic mechanism of China’s sustainable economic development.This article builds an expanded Solow Model to analyze the motivation of China’s growth from 1978 to 2016.The result shows that the mode of growth after reforming is still extensive,and that fixed asset investment,input of labor,capital-based technical progress,industrialization and institutional change are the main motivations of China’s growth.However,these traditional motivations may cause serious problems or will soon be used up.To solve the problems and keep a moderate growth,we need to find new motivations of growth and formulate overall plan of developing China.